Story Highlights
- Trump’s net approval rating has hit a new second-term low of -20.1 percent, with his approval on inflation and cost of living at -41.8 percent
- Support among white voters without college degrees—Trump’s core demographic—has declined substantially, with Republican generic ballot support among this group down to 55 percent compared to historical support of around 61-65 percent
- Generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats ahead 48.8 percent to Republicans’ 41.6 percent, suggesting substantial Democratic gains are possible in November if current trends continue
What Happened
Recent polling data compiled by multiple polling organizations and aggregated by analysts tracking presidential approval has revealed that President Trump’s approval ratings have declined to historic lows for his second term. According to the New York Times/Siena poll, Trump’s net approval rating stands at -22 percent. AtlasIntel polling places the net approval at -20 percent, while CBS News/YouGov shows -26 percent. The average of multiple polling sources indicates a net approval rating of -20.1 percent as of May 18, 2026. This represents a significant deterioration from just one week prior, when Trump’s net approval stood at -19.1 percent, and two weeks earlier when it was -18.6 percent.
The decline in Trump’s approval ratings is particularly pronounced on economic issues, which have consistently been the most important issue for American voters. Trump’s net approval rating on inflation and cost of living has declined to -41.8 percent according to polling aggregates tracking responses on this specific issue. Analysts note that the decline on economic issues has been so rapid that they have had to repeatedly lower the y-axis on approval rating charts measuring Trump’s economic approval to accommodate increasingly negative ratings. Even on the economy in general, Trump’s net approval has hit a new second-term low of -27.4 percent.
Most concerningly for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, support among white voters without college degrees—a demographic that has formed the core of Trump’s political coalition throughout his political career—appears to be eroding substantially. According to CNN polling analysis, Republicans have led among white working-class voters by between 34 and 37 points in each election during the Trump era. In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans won this demographic by 34 points. However, current generic congressional ballot polling compiled from CNN, Fox, Marist and New York Times sources shows Republicans averaging just 55 percent among these voters compared to Democrats’ 38 percent, representing a 17-point advantage. This represents a significant decline from historical performance and approaches the worst performance this demographic has shown under Republican leadership.
Why It Matters
Trump’s declining approval ratings among white working-class voters represent a critical political development heading into the 2026 midterm elections. This demographic has been responsible for Trump’s electoral success throughout his political career, providing the margin of victory in crucial swing states in 2016 and 2020. If support among this group continues declining, Republican candidates nationwide may face substantial challenges in House and Senate races. The generic congressional ballot showing Democrats ahead 48.8 percent to Republicans’ 41.6 percent suggests that Democrats could achieve substantial gains in both chambers if current trends persist.
For Trump’s political agenda, declining approval ratings among any demographic create challenges for legislative success. The Republican-controlled House and Senate have done little to separate themselves from Trump politically, meaning that any decline in Trump’s popularity translates directly into challenges for Republican congressional candidates. If Republicans lose either the House or the Senate in November, Trump’s ability to advance his legislative agenda would be severely constrained, and Democrats would gain authority to launch investigations and potentially pursue impeachment proceedings against the President.
For working-class Americans, the erosion of support among this demographic may reflect economic anxieties that Trump’s policies have failed to adequately address. Gas prices remain elevated following the Iran conflict. Inflation concerns persist despite administration claims of progress. Healthcare costs remain a significant burden. Trump’s efforts to tout economic achievements have not resonated with this demographic, suggesting that the public’s lived experience with economic challenges diverges from administration rhetoric about economic success.
Economic and Global Context
Trump’s approval ratings have declined as Americans experience persistent economic challenges that the administration has struggled to address. Gas prices remain substantially elevated following the Iran conflict, with California reporting prices averaging $6.15 per gallon at the time of Trump’s criticism of Iran proposals. These elevated gas prices have reduced consumer purchasing power and contributed to inflation concerns. The Trump administration’s attempts to address gas prices through federal gasoline tax suspension proposals have required congressional action that lawmakers have been reluctant to take.
The generic congressional ballot showing Democrats ahead suggests that historical midterm patterns may operate in 2026 despite Trump’s efforts to defy them. Historically, the party of the sitting president loses seats in midterm elections. Some analysts predicted that Republicans might defy this historical pattern and maintain or gain seats in 2026, but recent polling trends suggest that Democrats are positioned to make substantial gains if current political conditions persist. Specifically, Democrats could gain control of the House, and Senate control remains competitive with Democrats having genuine opportunities to expand their majority.
The erosion of Trump’s support among white working-class voters has occurred despite Trump’s efforts to campaign extensively for Republican candidates. Trump has traveled repeatedly to campaign rallies, made numerous endorsements in primary races, and attempted to define the terms of debate for 2026 elections. Despite these efforts, his approval ratings continue declining and support among his core demographic continues eroding. This suggests that personal popularity and campaign activity cannot fully overcome deteriorating approval on fundamental issues like economic management.
Implications
For Republican prospects in November 2026, the erosion of Trump’s approval ratings and support among white working-class voters creates significant challenges. House Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-217 majority. Losing even a handful of seats could cost Republicans control of the House. Senate Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, but face potential losses in multiple competitive seats. If current polling trends persist and translate into actual votes, Republicans could lose House control and face substantial challenges in the Senate.
For Trump’s second-term agenda, declining approval ratings among working-class voters and the public generally constrain his ability to advance policy initiatives. Even if Republicans retain congressional control, declining presidential approval typically generates pressure from congressional members to distance themselves from a struggling president. This could limit the legislative agenda Trump can advance and create openings for Republican resistance to Trump initiatives that party leaders might otherwise support.
For Democratic strategy heading into November, Trump’s declining approval ratings suggest opportunities for Democratic gains if the party can effectively frame the midterms as a choice between Trump policies and Democratic alternatives. Democratic campaign messaging has emphasized economic concerns and healthcare costs, areas where Trump’s approval is particularly weak. If Democrats can maintain message discipline around economic issues and turnout among voters dissatisfied with economic conditions, they could achieve significant gains.
Sources
“Trump approval rating reaches historic low as economy concerns deepen”
