Story Highlights
- The proposed memorandum would commit Iran to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, with duration actively being negotiated between 12 and 20 years
- The U.S. would commit to gradually lifting sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets worth billions of dollars upon signing
- Trump threatened renewed and intensified bombing if Iran does not agree to terms, calling acceptable Iranian concessions “perhaps a big assumption”
What Happened
The White House believes it is getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue. The U.S. expected Iranian responses on several key points within 48 hours, and sources described this as the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
Among the provisions being discussed, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The memorandum, if signed, would declare an end to the war and begin a 30-day negotiating period to work out a comprehensive agreement.
The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is being actively negotiated, with three sources saying it would be at least 12 years and one source putting 15 years as a likely landing spot. Iran proposed a 5-year moratorium on enrichment while the U.S. demanded 20 years. Two sources with knowledge of the discussions also claimed Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country — a critical U.S. demand Tehran had previously rejected — with one source saying an option being discussed is moving the material to the United States.
President Donald Trump warned in a Truth Social post that if Iran does not agree to the terms, “the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” Trump also told PBS News that the war has a “very good chance of ending,” while simultaneously warning that the alternative to a deal would be renewed escalation.
Iran handed over its latest proposal on Thursday, proposing to end the war and resolve the shipping standoff first while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear program for a later phase. A senior Iranian official said Tehran viewed this sequencing as a significant shift aimed at facilitating an agreement: “Under this framework, negotiations over the more complicated nuclear issue have been moved to the final stage to create a more conducive atmosphere.” That sequencing runs counter to Washington’s longstanding demand that nuclear restrictions be tied directly to any agreement ending hostilities.
Why It Matters
An agreement ending the U.S.-Iran war would be the most significant diplomatic development in the Middle East in years, with consequences extending far beyond the two countries directly involved. The war has disrupted global energy markets, pushed U.S. gas prices to their highest level in nearly four years, strained America’s relationships with regional allies, and consumed the White House’s bandwidth at a moment when the administration faces multiple domestic and international challenges.
The nuclear dimension of any deal is particularly consequential. Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile — including material that Washington says could be used to produce a nuclear weapon — has been a central point of contention throughout the negotiations. A verified, durable moratorium on enrichment with snap inspections and a clear timeline, combined with the removal of enriched material from Iranian territory, would represent a more restrictive arrangement than even the 2015 JCPOA, which Trump abandoned in 2018.
Washington wants Tehran to give up its stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which the United States says could be used to make a bomb. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, though it is willing to discuss some curbs in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, as it had accepted in the 2015 deal that Trump abandoned. The question of whether any agreement reached will be durable — given Trump’s own history of withdrawing from Iran nuclear deals — will be a central concern for regional governments and international observers.
For ordinary Americans, the most immediate implication of a deal is lower gas prices. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies passed before the war, has been effectively closed since late February. Reopening it would rapidly reduce global energy costs and ease inflationary pressure on American households.
Economic and Global Context
Trump is under domestic pressure to break Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked off 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies and pushed up U.S. gasoline prices. Trump’s Republican Party faces the risk of a voter backlash over higher prices in November’s midterm congressional elections. Every week the conflict continues is a week in which the economic cost to American consumers compounds.
Stock indices jumped and oil prices plunged following reports that the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal, appearing to be one of the strongest market signals yet that an end to the conflict was coming into focus. The market reaction underscored how deeply global financial conditions have been affected by the war and how significant even the prospect of resolution is for investors, shipping companies, and energy markets.
The Iran war is likely to take center stage at the upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for May 14 and 15, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent already confirming that Iran will be a topic. Beijing has unique leverage with Tehran given that China absorbed more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025. Washington has actively pressed China to use that leverage to push Iran toward a deal, though Beijing’s own confrontation with U.S. tariffs complicates its willingness to act as a reliable pressure mechanism.
The proposed sanctions relief and release of frozen Iranian assets worth billions of dollars would have significant ripple effects for global financial markets and the countries — including Japan, South Korea, and European nations — holding those frozen funds in escrow arrangements under U.S. sanction regimes.
Implications
If the memorandum is signed, the 30-day detailed negotiation period will be the most critical phase of the process. If those negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, according to a U.S. official. That condition means neither side faces absolute commitment from an MOU, which could reduce the incentive for either party to make concessions during the detailed talks.
Trump said on Saturday he had yet to review the exact wording of the Iranian peace proposal but wrote on social media that he could not imagine it would be acceptable because Iran “has not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity.” That public skepticism, even as his own negotiators reported progress, reflects the volatile and unpredictable character of the diplomatic process.
For Congress, a peace deal reached by executive agreement — without Senate ratification as a formal treaty — would likely face immediate challenges over its legal durability. Republican senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton have already warned that any nuclear agreement would require Senate approval to be lasting. If the deal is structured as an executive agreement rather than a treaty, a future administration could exit it just as Trump exited the 2015 JCPOA.
For Iran, the negotiations present both opportunity and risk. Sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets would provide immediate economic benefit. But a moratorium on nuclear enrichment — particularly one lasting 12 to 20 years — would require Tehran to accept constraints on a program it has consistently described as a sovereign right, making domestic political approval far from guaranteed.
