Story Highlights
- The Economist/YouGov poll placed Trump’s approval at 34%, the lowest in its tracking series across both his terms
- A Pew Research Center survey found only 38% of Americans believe Trump “keeps his promises,” down from 51% after his 2024 election win
- Sixty-one percent of Americans say the national economy is on the wrong track, up sharply from 43% at the start of 2026
What Happened
In the final week of May 2026, a wave of polling data provided one of the clearest snapshots yet of President Trump’s standing with the American public. The findings were grim across nearly every reputable survey. A weekly tracking poll from the Economist and YouGov placed his approval at 34 percent, with 59 percent disapproving — a net approval of negative 25, described as the weakest reading in the dataset across both of Trump’s presidential terms.
A separate Emerson College poll, conducted May 24 through 25 among 1,000 likely voters, found Trump’s approval at 39 percent with 55 percent disapproving. That result represented the lowest monthly reading in Emerson’s tracking series. A Reuters/Ipsos poll similarly found approval at 34 percent among all respondents and 37 percent among registered voters, both second-term lows. Pew Research Center, conducting a broader survey of 5,103 U.S. adults in late April, found Trump’s job approval at 34 percent while tracking declines across a range of personal attributes.
The Pew findings were particularly pointed on the question of promise-keeping. Only 38 percent of Americans said the description “keeps his promises” applied to Trump very or fairly well, down from 43 percent last August and 51 percent in the weeks following his November 2024 election victory. The share describing Trump as “mentally sharp” also declined, from 48 percent to 44 percent over the same period.
A New York Times/Siena College survey and an American Research Group poll rounded out the five major surveys referenced in reporting, all showing similar downward trends. The consistency across organizations using different methodologies — online panels, telephone interviews, and mixed-mode approaches — makes the pattern difficult to attribute to any single polling quirk.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings are a leading indicator of midterm performance, and the pattern here closely resembles historical cases where the president’s party suffered significant losses in Congress. When Trump began his second term in January 2025, his approval stood at approximately 47 percent — already the second-lowest inauguration-day rating in modern polling history, trailing only his own first term. The subsequent 10 to 13 point decline over roughly 16 months is steep by any standard.
The drivers of that decline are identifiable and, from the administration’s perspective, difficult to reverse quickly. Economic dissatisfaction is the dominant factor: 61 percent of Americans now say the country is on the wrong track economically, a shift of 18 percentage points since the start of the year. That sentiment tracks directly with elevated fuel prices stemming from the Hormuz closure, persistent inflation, and consumer frustration with daily costs.
Opposition to the Iran war is the second major driver. The conflict, launched in February 2026 with no clear exit strategy articulated to the public, has generated sustained opposition from across the political spectrum, including a significant segment of Trump’s own base. The public feud between Trump and former ally Tucker Carlson, who has accused the president of betraying the “America First” movement, is the most visible expression of that intra-coalition fracturing.
For Republican senators and House members facing voters in November, the polling environment is among the most challenging of the cycle. A president below 40 percent approval is historically associated with significant midterm losses for the president’s party.
Economic and Global Context
The economic component of Trump’s approval decline deserves close attention because it is the factor most likely to determine midterm outcomes. Approval ratings driven by foreign policy controversies can recover if conflicts resolve. Approval declines rooted in household economic pain tend to be stickier, persisting through election day even when macroeconomic indicators improve.
The surge in fuel costs driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure has been the most direct economic transmission mechanism from foreign policy to household budgets. Gas taxes and fuel surcharges account for as much as 17 percent of the per-gallon cost at the pump, and the Iran war’s effect on crude prices has added to that baseline burden.
Internationally, presidential approval ratings influence how allied governments and adversaries calculate American reliability and resolve. A president polling below 40 percent faces harder negotiations in every arena — trade, alliances, and diplomatic settlements. Iranian negotiators are certainly aware of Trump’s domestic political weakness, which may affect their calculation on how long they can delay accepting his revised peace terms.
Implications
The most immediate consequence of these numbers is the pressure they place on Republican members of Congress to distance themselves from unpopular administration positions without appearing disloyal to a president who still commands strong support within the party’s primary electorate. That is a politically treacherous path, and the anti-weaponization fund controversy has already forced several senators into public disagreement with the White House.
Strategists for both parties will be studying these polls carefully as candidate recruitment and campaign messaging for the midterms take shape. Democratic candidates are already framing their campaigns around economic affordability, positioning themselves as a check on a president whose approval spans only a third of the electorate.
For the White House, the path forward requires visible wins — a signed Iran deal, a passed immigration bill, or a resolved legal crisis — before the fall campaign season begins in earnest. Without those wins, the political headwinds facing the party in November will be difficult to reverse.
For American voters, the polls reflect a population that granted Trump a second mandate 18 months ago and has since grown significantly more skeptical about whether that mandate is being executed in their interest. That skepticism, if sustained, will define the governance landscape for the remainder of Trump’s term.
Sources
“Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Hits New Low Across Five Polls”
